The Weekend Australian, May 2-3, 1998
Article by Dennis Shanahan, political editor
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party believes it will win a minimum of three seats in the Queensland election that will “make or break” the fledgling conservative group as a political force in Australia.
But despite the confident predictions for this year’s state election, One Nation has conceded that Ms Hanson faces a difficult task in holding her place in the House of Representatives and may lose her seat.
The One Nation leadership predicts the Hanson supporters will win at least three State parliamentary seats and possibly more than six, giving it the balance of power in a close election. One Nation has conceded it is now concentrating its political efforts on Queensland, its strongest base, to provide a springboard back into national politics.
Ms Hanson said yesterday that “Queenslanders may be the first Australians with the opportunity to vote for change”.
“What’s happening with One Nation in the Queensland State election is important not only for Queenslanders, but for all Australians because it will finally show the true support for the party,” she said.
Part of the vision of a One Nation campaign based on Queensland is the possibility of holding the balance of power in three houses of Parliament - Queensland’s single parliament, the Senate and the House of Representatives in order of likelihood.
One Nation confidence even runs to contemplating a One Nation Premier of Queensland in “20 years time”.
The party is also extensively using the Internet and its Web site to sell a campaign by-passing the mainstream media, particularly in regional Queensland.
A One Nation success could be the first step towards the election of a virtual party and a computer candidate as more appears on the site than is actually expressed by Ms Hanson in parliament or in public.
Her political adviser, David Oldfield, said One Nation candidates were likely to win three seats comfortably and could win six more, nominating Barambah, Callide, Caloundra, Gympie, Hervey Bay and Western Downs.
Various polling in specific seats, although small samples with high margins of error, have put One Nation support at a minimum of 20% in several of these seats.
But the confidence over securing Queensland is tempered by the admission of Mr Oldfield that the part’s figurehead and founder faces the most difficult electoral task of all and could lose her chosen federal seat of Blair.
“We have to face that possibility,” Mr Oldfield said, “We don’t take Blair for granted.”
Mr Oldfield says three Senate seats are possible at the expense of the Democrats in Queensland and possibly the second Democrat position in South Australia in a double dissolution election.
But he concedes Queensland is the key to success of One Nation, the standing of which has fallen in national polls since it began a year ago.
Last year, One Nation had 9% support in one national Newspoll survey, but support has dropped nationally to about 4%.
Mr Oldfield claims support for One Nation is coming from the National Party, the Liberal Party and even the Labor Party in Queensland.
Polls show that on a specific seat basis in Queensland, One Nation cannot be dismissed as a fringe party. One Nation’s performance at the state election will provide the first real test for electoral support. Ms Hanson said yesterday that a good result in the State election would encourage Australians everywhere to be less afraid to openly support “what we stand for”.
Mr Oldfield described the Queensland poll as a “litmus test” and while predicting Senate success in New South Wales and South Australia, admits Queensland has “priority”.
But the One Nation website has had 122,000 hits in a year and raised Au$30,000, is playing an important role in disseminating the party’s unfiltered views. Most of the support is coming from National supporters, but some Liberal seats are at risk and there are signs that ALP supporters are also giving One Nation help.