The Aboriginal population is growing at a surprising rate and will double by 2025, according to the ANU’s Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research.
Researchers Dr Alan Gray and Dr John Taylor looked at the 1996 Census data which showed the Aboriginal population was about 350,000 - including an unexpected rise of almost 100,000 since 1991.
However Drs Gray and Taylor say their analysis of the jump in Aboriginal numbers show the surprise is just the beginning and that eventually almost every Australian will have an Aboriginal blood connection.
“We are witnessing a process at the end of which virtually every Australian will be a descendant of the original Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander inhabitants of the continent - whether or not they are aware of it or whether or not they claim it,” said Dr Gray. (Conversely every Aboriginal will be a descendant of the white colonisers of Australia whether they are aware of it or wish to claim it - Ed).
The recently revealed Census figures have created controversy amongst demographers, with some attributing the growth to an increase in people identifying themselves as Aboriginal. But while Dr Gray acknowledged this probably occurred to some extent, he insisted identity change alone could account for a population increase of 40%.
“It would be naive in the extreme to think this many people somehow discovered and adopted indigenous identity between 1991 and 1996,” said Dr Gray.
Most of the growth could be attributed to intermarriage which resulted in more children being born with Aboriginal ties, he said. However, some of the growth was the result of improved methods used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The prevalence of intermarriage, especially in urban areas, has not been taken fully into account in the past, according to Dr Taylor. About half of all Aboriginals in relationships have non-Aboriginal partners, and this proportion will continue to grow.
“Its quite clear by looking at the Census State by State that the bulk of the increase in population occurred in urban areas - about 87%,” said Dr Taylor. It may also have consequences for the reorganisation of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Council electoral boundaries.
“For demographers, the prevalence of intermarriage means the distinction between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal ethnicity is becoming increasingly blurred at the edges,” said Dr Gray.
“The Aboriginal population does have a size. But we still don’t know exactly what this is. With every Census we come closer to the truth,” he said.